Year-End Tax Projection (US)

Answer (2026): A year-end tax projection is a visibility check that shows whether a meaningful gap exists while there is still time to act. It is about a range you trust, not perfect math.

Context: Best for high-income households with bonuses, RSUs, K-1s, or business distributions.

Action: Run a projection range, then pair it with Estimated Tax Catch-Up to confirm payments before the next IRS deadline. (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

Last reviewed: January 21, 2026.

Key takeaways

• A range is enough to make a decision.
• Late-year income changes create the biggest surprises.
• Projections work best when paired with an estimated tax check.

The goal is to avoid an April surprise, not to land on a penny.

The year-end projection framework

1. Lock the income picture. List base income plus variable income expected before year-end (bonuses, RSUs, K-1s, distributions).

2. Confirm withholding and estimates. Compare what has already been paid to what you expect to owe. IRS payment periods are not equal quarters. (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

3. Surface the gap. You do not need a perfect number, but you need to know if the gap is small, medium, or large before the last payment window closes.

4. Sequence the next move. If the gap is meaningful, decide whether to adjust withholding or make a catch-up payment.

Decision checklist

• Did bonuses, RSUs, or business income change your tax picture?
• Are you assuming the same deductions and credits as last year?
• Are you on track for the same withholding or estimated payments you planned?
• Do you have major life or entity changes that alter your filing?
• Are any estimated payments due soon based on IRS periods? (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

Questions to ask your CPA

• What is our current range if we lock today as the cut-off?
• What changes would move the projection by a meaningful amount?
• Which documents do you need now to avoid a late scramble?
• Do any estimated tax deadlines apply to us this quarter? (https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax)

Related tools

• Estimated Tax Catch-Up
• Tax Optimization

Related resources

• Year-End Tax Planning Guide
• Estimated Tax Catch-Up Guide
• S-corp Reasonable Compensation
• QBI Deduction Planning
• Backdoor Roth IRA (Form 8606)
• HSA Worth It Decision Guide

Related pages

• Advisor
• Family Office Blueprint

Next step

If you want a quick signal, run the Year-End Tax Projection and pair it with Estimated Tax Catch-Up. If either looks off, move to Tax Optimization for a deeper review.

Compliance note

This guide is for planning and coordination only. It does not provide tax or legal advice. Confirm timing and next steps with a qualified professional.

Sources

• IRS: Estimated tax due dates and payment periods
  https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-tax